Market View for 30th June

Today is Base metals expiry so we might see volatility due to settlement so please avoid trading today in metals. Will see tomorrow how to move forward in them.

Crude still looks good for targets of 3475/3500 and above 3510 it will become more stronger.

Gold and Silver are consolidating for quite sometime and a clear directional movement is yet to come. Till then just sell on rise and buy back at support.

Natural Gas trend is also not clear however sentiment looks negative. 189-190 is a nice support and below that we can see 185.5-186.2 and on the upside 198-199 range is acting as resistance and above 200 it should fly..

Gold chart Head & Shoulders in $

Hi All,

On one of the viewers request I am hereby attaching the chart of Gold in $ in which H&S pattern is clearly visible. See the neckline breach which is marked in yellow colour. After breaching the neckline how it went up to kiss the neckline again and fell badly till $911.

Market View for 26th June

Yesterday again we have seen a decent buying seen in all base metals which indicates that some more upside is on the cards. Although volume is increasing but open interest is being split within this month and next month due to expiry approaching. That might be the reason why we dont see the OI bumping up for this month. As mentioned yesterday Lead data was strong so it rose well, also suggested buy position in Zinc above 75.85 for 2 Rs gain which we got intraday. Also suggested Aluminium to go long above 79.8 for targets of 82/84. Copper inspite of the rise advised clients to do a short at 249 levels and which gave 2-3 points intraday.

As mentioned Crude also has taken stiff resistance at 3392 entire day and fell down 25-30 rs a couple of times and finally broke out above this level. Given long call for 3440/3480. Closed almost at days high.

Although Silver is not supporting but Gold is almost at its resistance of $943. Above $945 we can see some good upside for $12-16. In INR as long as Gold is trading above 14521 its good for longs. Head & Shoulder pattern has given $32 as profits but could not gave entire $43 as profits. Silver is yet to show some strength. The real strength is above 22800-22900 zone.

Yesterday some buying emerged in Natural Gas on lower levels which has pulled it up. However the overall momentum is still down and strength is not there. Also trend is not clear so it would trade volatile.

Market View on 25th June

This is where all technicals fail when something rises or falls without any reason. Till yesterday there was no strength at all in any of these base metals data and even today after such an unexpected rise the strength in terms of volume along with open interest is still not there in any of these except Lead. Honestly I have no clue why base metals have risen yesterday. I myself dont see any reason to this. Copper had breached its long term TL so beautifully that any technical analyst would be surprised to see it bouncing right from that point.

Crude as expected has taken stiff resistance between 3366-3392 region and fell down 50+ points after that. It is weak as long as its trading below this range.

The same incident has happened in Gold. Gold has shown a beautiful Head & Shoulders pattern on daily charts in US $ which went active on the breach of $943 for targets of $896. It has fallen till $911 but has shown a sudden spurt yesterday and went up till $941.25 and still managed to close and still trading below $943. The speed with which Gold has spurted up, it came down with almost same speed. One can keep an eye on the close above $945 as SL in Gold shorts. Above a close $945 we can expect a target of $956/$966. Silver didnt manage to match the speed of rise in Gold and still looks weak. It will be strong only on a close above 22900.

Natural Gas also behaved well on expectation. The moment it breached 193.6 it fell down till 189.6 and again kissed 193.6 and fell down till 189.1. My support was 188. Now it has entered weak zone and 188/185.3 is next on cards.

Market View for 24th June

Base metals have seen some recovery however they are still weak and should fall again. But what should be the final level to hold your shorts and what should be the SL???? Exact levels and SL only for clients.

Crude is still weak and should fall again. My 3rd target of 3232 is missed by few points. Now 3366-3392 will act as a resistance wall before it can move up. It should retest the yesterday's low again if it holds these levels.

Gold & Silver are still weak. Yesterday advised clients to book 100 Rs profit in Gold & Silver also almost touched the 1st target of 22050. If US $ is going to support we should see some more fall in these counters.

Natural Gas has taken a decent support at 194 levels (the trendline) yesterday and bounced back 2-3 Rs from there. Now as long as yesterday's low is intact we are in upside otherwise it will be beaten down to 186/178. Keep an eye.........

Technical View on Natural Gas

You can clearly see that Natural Gas has a decent support around 194 levels. If it closes below 194 then it should invite bears to rule it and they will drive it for 186/178.

Market View for 23rd June

As expected base metals crashed yesterday but weakness was seen in the entire pack. Copper was leading the fall and it has breached its long term trendline intraday only so advised clients to go short for targets of 223/217. More fall to come in all of them. Momentum is shifting from +ve to -ve and Copper & Zinc looks weakest.

Crude also gone weak and fell badly below 3360 so advised clients to go short below 3360 for the targets of 3320/3280/3240. 2 targets met intraday and 3rd and more is yet to come. We should see 3232 and 3180 soon.

Gold & Silver are also witnessing weakness. We are short in Gold since 14540 levels (when it was trading at $934) for targets of $896. Yesterday it has broken its another important support of $924 so more fall should be seen today in it. It should head for 14391/14234. Silver also has broken its very important support of 22400 so it should follow Gold blindly. 22050 and 21700 coming...

Natural Gas momentum is also changing and it should take support in 194-195 range. Below this it will head for 186/178.

Market View for 22nd June

Base metals are still looking in uptrend although a short term downside is expected. Those dips should be used for long term buying. Most of them are trading above their long term trend line which is acting as a very important support. As long as that long term trendline is intact we can use it for buying.

Crude Oil is also in uptrend but is prone to a correction. 3360 is a nice support. Below that we can see 3318/3232/3180/3141.

Gold & Silver are non trending however Gold is consolidating in a triangle and either side trendline breach will decide the further direction.

Natural Gas has a decent support at 194. Use dips to buy this.

Good News

Hello All,
On Monday 15th June I am blessed with a sweet little baby girl so I am on break for few days. Will be back to the business starting 22nd June.
Thanks
Abhinav

Market View for 12th June

Base metals as mentioned earlier are rocking and daily making new highs. First Aluminium started the rally, then Copper & Lead joined the party and now Nickel and Zinc also came in form. Overall a decent run has seen and so far everything still looks good for more gains.

Gold & Silver are taking extreme support at lower levels & are bouncing back sharply from there. Now Gold can show more weakness only below 14460 & Silver below 23160. We might see some upside from here.

Crude oil is breaking all barriers & yesterday crossed its huge resistance of 3449. Now the doors are opened for further upside of 200-300 rs but remember the overbought condition is still the same so trade with strict SL. If it starts cracking we may see 200-300 points correction as well.

Natural Gas has shown a nice upmove after its inventory. Huge buying positions have seen in this counter which makes it a better choice for long term upmove. Although its still non trending but momentum is getting shifted from downside to upside so we might see some more upside today as well.

Market View for 11th June

No change from yesterday in any of these counters.

Base metals still positive. Buy on dips.

Crude Oil still in positive trend but overbought so prone to a correction. Above 3320 next target was 3400 which it has achieved yesterday. Now 3419-3449 is very major resistance for this. If it has to crack it will take stiff resistance there otherwise above 3450 it will head for 3764. Watch out....

Natural Gas is still weak and ready for more fall. This week resistance is at 185 which is intact and its not able to break that...

Gold & Silver are still weak and prone to more fall. This week important level for Gold is 14731 and Silver 23945. Yesterday both tried to kiss them but could not break them and fell badly which means upside is only possible only after breach of these levels.

Market View for 10th June

In Base metals only Copper & Lead has risen with full strength & rest others just followed them. These 2 counters looks very strong now. Buy on dips. Nickel & Zinc also positive but not as promising as Copper & lead.

Crude still looks overbought & has taken stiff resistance at 3320 yesterday. In international market $71.75 is huge resistance. Keep an eye on this level. A close above this will take it to new highs.

Natural Gas was weak and as expected fallen from its intraday resistance of 182. It is still weak and can be shorted on rise.

Gold & Silver are still under pressure & are prone to fall. More to come...

Market View for 9th June

Base metals mix mood continues. As mentioned earlier that something is cooking in Aluminium thats why it rising consistently. What is its next resistance...ask me?The same way Copper, Lead has similar behavior as neutral and Nickel, Zinc has similar behavior towards bearish...check it out for exact levels for short or long...

Crude is still overbought & can crash badly from here. But at which level to short & what should be the SL? Check it out...

Gold & Silver were neutral to bearish & we have seen some downside selling in these counters. They still remain on bearish side specially Silver. The worrying part is that both of these counters are trading with low volumes as if they are waiting for some event or news to happen. It means they might show some drastic moves either side. So trade with strict SL.

Natural Gas can fall more from here. Looks somewhat bearish side.

Market View for 8th June

Base metals after being highly volatile last week still shows sign of indecision. A mix mood is seen in them. Better to avoid.

Crude has risen much is last few days. Now it seems to be overbought and should take some correction from here. Till what level it should come? Ask me......

Gold & Silver also seems to be on neutral to negative side.

Natural Gas is also non trending & is on a volatile side.

Overall I would advise traders to sit aside & wait for the clear trend to develop. Till then we can only trade based on the good support & resistances.............

Market View for 5th June

Base metals seems to be very volatile. Something was cooking in Aluminium that is why when entire base metal pack was down day before yesterday Aluminium was standing as it is. Yesterday when other metals rose some Aluminium rose handsomely 5+ points. Overall I wud say the picture is still not clear so wait until it becomes clearer.

Gold expiry was done yesterday & as I said day before we have seen huge volatility & Silver was also influenced with this. Yesterday Silver fell from the resistance I had given of 24600 & had taken support at 23655 mentioned clearly.

Crude Oil still looks good & should rise more.

Natural Gas is non trending and will continue to be volatile. Yesterday due to the inventory up is fell badly but we have seen a sharp bounce from its extreme support levels of 169.2 & again given intraday gains of more than 10+ points.

Market View for 3rd June

Yesterday some profit booking was seen in base metals which pulled them down & almost all of them except Nickel and Lead closed around their days low. Although there is no change in the trend but need to see if the same behaviour is seen today as well.

Crude is still positive and consistently moving up. Heading for 3400????? or will it crack from here?

Gold expiry is near so some unexpected moves can be seen. Should be highly volatile. Silver trend is still up & 24600 will act as a stiff resistance. On the other side 23655 is support for this week.

Natural Gas started looking positive and yesterday it has broken it resistance of 197 however could not manage to close above it. A nice trend has started developing and most probably for upside.

Market View for 2nd June

Another wonderful day. As I mentioned that base metals are looking strong and specially Copper, Lead & Nickel so all 3 base metals rose very well with good volumes. The best part is even Aluminium & Zinc have joined the party. Now entire pack looks good and can be bought on dips.

Gold & Silver made new highs yesterday & they might see a little consolidation now. Although both the counters looks bullish but $ is not supporting & consistently getting weaker. If $ will support these counters will have additional strength.

Crude Oil still positive & met my last target/resistance of 3175 yesterday. Since it has closed above 3175 it is even more stronger now. A perfect bull trend is in place.

In Natural Gas short term momentum seems to be up but the long term is still not favoring longs.So far 197 seems to be a huge resistance and below that even 195.8 is a good one. Lets see what unfolds before us. Till the things become clearer we will wait. As always we will pick it at the correct time :)

Stay tuned...keep visiting for regular updates on these commodities & join us to be on the right side of the market...Always !!!!!

Market View for 1st June

Some base metals like Copper, Lead & Nickel are moving into positive zone whereas Aluminium & Zinc are not yet so strong to buy. We can buy Copper, Lead & Nickel with strict SL because the real strength is still yet to come.

Gold & Silver are still bullish and can be bought on dips.

Crude is also bullish & might test 3175 soon.

Natural Gas looks weak & can be shorted on rise. Strength will be only above 197.